Child Mortality Forecasts to 2030

Neonatal mortality forecasts were flatter than under-5 forecasts, with peak values of 6.30 in Bangladesh, 5.08 in Indonesia and 5.00 in Azerbaijan. Most projections had narrow credible intervals, supporting the model's reliability for broad country-level forecasting despite some anomalies. Some forecasts produced near-zero or negative estimates for countries such as Yemen and the UAE, which may reflect model sensitivity to spatial priors or sparse data. Forecasted under-5 mortality hotspot values include 77.12 per 1000 live births in Afghanistan, 63.16 in Myanmar and 57.12 in Bangladesh. Afghanistan is projected to have the highest under-5 mortality rate through 2030, followed by Bangladesh and Myanmar.