Counterfactual Modelling
Applying the ideation-to-attempt rate to OpenUp users produced an estimate of 2,484 potential attempts. The article treats the counterfactual numbers as modelled pathways, not actual observed outcomes. The study modelled what might have ha…
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Applying the ideation-to-attempt rate to OpenUp users produced an estimate of 2,484 potential attempts. The article treats the counterfactual numbers as modelled pathways, not actual observed outcomes. The study modelled what might have happened without OpenUp because those outcomes were not directly observed. The model used a 31.8% ideation-to-attempt transition rate from a Hong Kong adolescent study. The model estimated 77 potential deaths by applying a 3.22% attempt-to-death rate to the attempt group.