Glaucoma Burden Projections to 2050

Declining projected age-standardised rates suggest potential benefits from improved diagnostics, healthcare access, and socioeconomic development. Projected growth in absolute glaucoma cases (+24.2%) and DALYs (+31.88%) by 2050 represents a marked slowdown relative to the 86.3% case increase observed over 1990–2021. ARIMA projections were validated via Ljung-Box Q-testing for residual independence and a mean absolute percentage error below 10%. Population ageing and increased longevity may cause actual future burden to exceed ARIMA projections. Low-SDI regions, particularly in Western Sub-Saharan Africa, are expected to continue bearing disproportionate burden through 2050 absent targeted intervention.