Gompertz Law

The proposed equation reproduces Gompertz mortality before the characteristic age delta. A continued 10% annual mortality increase after age 110 would make survival from 110 to 122.45 about 0.00000008. The continued Gompertz survival probability is about three orders of magnitude lower than under the mortality plateau model. The model links Gompertz mortality to the Strehler-Mildvan correlation and the compensation law of mortality. In the simulations, increasing mortality with age corresponds to Drewnowski’s index above 0.5, constant mortality to 0.5, and decreasing mortality to below 0.5. If Gompertz mortality continued to rise exponentially at the oldest ages, Calment's survival would be far less plausible. Average lifespan in the unstable regime depends on both instability and stress, but stress affects it logarithmically. The Gompertz simulations are illustrative rather than empirical estimates for specific populations. The Gompertz function fits much adult mortality data but does not explain late-life mortality deceleration or plateaus. Calment's age is incompatible with a simple continuation of younger-adult exponential mortality increases through the most advanced ages. Th…