Longevity Forecast
The paper concluded there was less than a 50% chance Calment's lifespan would be surpassed before 2045. The paper estimated a median record-breaking time around mid-2045. The forecast depended on the assumed growth rate in new supercentena…
1 sources - 4 claims
The paper concluded there was less than a 50% chance Calment's lifespan would be surpassed before 2045. The paper estimated a median record-breaking time around mid-2045. The forecast depended on the assumed growth rate in new supercentenarians and continued validity of the 0.5 post-110 death probability. The forecast used data only through the end of 2010 because later Gerontology Research Group list information had registration delays.