Longevity Predictions and Outliers

By January 1, 2060, the model predicts roughly a 0.5 probability that the world's oldest person exceeds Jeanne Calment's age. The fitted model predicts that the age of the oldest living person should continue increasing. The modeled probability of observing an oldest-person age at least as large as Jeanne Calment's age at death was 0.000286. Jeanne Calment and Sarah Knauss are extreme outliers under the fitted model. The framework can evaluate how surprising titleholder ages are under an explicit stochastic model. The model estimates both expected ages and future distributions for the world's oldest person across multiple dates through 2100.