Poisson Regression

The high-fertility tail was much heavier than Poisson expectations. The observed child-count distribution had too many zero-birth women and too few women with one through four births relative to a matched Poisson curve. The child-count dis…

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The high-fertility tail was much heavier than Poisson expectations. The observed child-count distribution had too many zero-birth women and too few women with one through four births relative to a matched Poisson curve. The child-count distribution in the peerage data is not Poisson. The paper says the Poisson regression method is valid as a trend indicator only if child counts follow a Poisson distribution. Removing nine women with the most children caused Poisson regression to stop producing a negative coefficient.