Probabilistic Snowfall Downscaling
The generated ensemble preserves uncertainty as a distribution rather than producing only one deterministic estimate. Ensemble spread can indicate where fine-scale precipitation is predictable from coarse forcing and where uncertainty rema…
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The generated ensemble preserves uncertainty as a distribution rather than producing only one deterministic estimate. Ensemble spread can indicate where fine-scale precipitation is predictable from coarse forcing and where uncertainty remains high. Ensemble deviations were spatially coherent and tied to terrain rather than random texture. The study targets annual maximum 3-day snowfall over coastal and southeast Alaska.