Record-Breaking Probability
The probability that at least one of 1,049 supercentenarians would reach 122.45 was 17.1%. The model estimated about a 20.4% chance that someone would reach 122.45 after Calment's death and before 25 September 2017. Under the model, there…
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The probability that at least one of 1,049 supercentenarians would reach 122.45 was 17.1%. The model estimated about a 20.4% chance that someone would reach 122.45 after Calment's death and before 25 September 2017. Under the model, there was about an 80% probability that Calment's record would still stand by 2017. A 17.1% probability made Calment's age extraordinary but not impossible under the model.