RSV March
Older adult RSV peaks lag infant RSV peaks by 4 weeks, with a cross-correlation of r=0.79. The correlation between older adult RSV rates and 1–4 year old rates at a 4-week lag was 0.86, and was statistically significant. Infants and young…
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Older adult RSV peaks lag infant RSV peaks by 4 weeks, with a cross-correlation of r=0.79. The correlation between older adult RSV rates and 1–4 year old rates at a 4-week lag was 0.86, and was statistically significant. Infants and young children are the primary drivers of community RSV transmission cycles, a pattern termed the RSV march. Immunisation strategies targeting infant-level transmission could indirectly protect older adults through reduced community RSV circulation. The 3–5 week predictive window between paediatric and older adult RSV peaks enables health systems to activate critical care contingency planning before the older adult surge arrives.