Rural Career Intentions

Intention to work rurally at medical school entry predicted later rural practice, with an OR of 2.50 in the sensitivity analysis. Only 34% of rural doctors with available intention data had expressed an early intention to work rurally, indicating that early stated intention is an incomplete predictor. Career intentions change during training and early practice, with some doctors expressing rural interest at postgraduate year 3 while currently working in urban locations. Rural workforce strategies should not rely solely on students with early rural intentions or rural origin because urban-origin students and those whose intentions change make up a substantial share of the rural workforce.