Scenario Analyses

A higher-effectiveness scenario produced the largest health, economic, and equity benefits. Scenario analyses tested uncertainty beyond probabilistic sensitivity analysis, including costs, mortality assumptions, and intervention effectiveness. A conservative intervention-effect scenario was cost-effective only at the highest threshold and left substantial inequities. Using higher mortality rates lowered net monetary benefit but preserved cost-effectiveness under WHO thresholds. A higher-cost scenario reduced net monetary benefit and removed cost-effectiveness at the lowest willingness-to-pay threshold.